He's back to start a war on brexit

ICBM

I'd like to make him Ambassador to the Islamic State. They should welcome him with open arms since they'd never have got started without him. As in send him there in person.

Bridgehouse

ICBM said:

I'd like to make him Ambassador to the Islamic State. They should welcome him with open arms since they'd never have got started without him. As in send him there in person.

He'd only find a way to make money out of it...

Heartfeltdawn

Brize said:

I think I can say with near certainty that, barring Farage and a few other fringe loonies, had the vote gone the other way, the Leave voters would have just shut about it and got on with their lives.

I can say with absolute certainty that you are wrong.  

I'll recount my story of the referendum from the perspective of a poll clerk. Of the 400 plus voters who cast ballots during the day, I had one leftie making a comment about never voting Leave because of the UKIP fascists. One sole lunatic from the Remain camp. I had far more spouting racist gibberish on the other side. 

The number of people who asked me for pens because they had read online that votes for Leave could be rubbed out: about 30. 

The number of people who asked me for pens to vote with at the General Election vote a month earlier: 0. 

When that number of people are asking for pens because of some paranoid gibberish, then it's a fairly safe bet that there would have been hell to pay had Remain won by a small margin. Recounts would have been demanded and conspiracy theories would have started. 

Farage had already said that a narrow Remain win would mean calls for a second referendum. That fine quote from the Mirror interview went thus "In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.". One line out from the Brexit camp spoken by more than one MP but most audibly by Nadine Dorries was that Remain had to win by 60-40 for the backbenchers to stop shuffling against Cameron. 

Can you seriously believe that a narrow Remain win would have seen the Daily Express and Mail conceding defeat? All those backbenchers on both main parties shutting up? No chance. 

siraxeman

hotpot said:

Why do these people have a problem with a democratic vote result! Do they want to keep having referendums until the desired vote goes their way!

That's what they do in the Euro parliament!

Brize

Heartfeltdawn said:

Can you seriously believe that a narrow Remain win would have seen the Daily Express and Mail conceding defeat? All those backbenchers on both main parties shutting up? No chance.

I'm not talking about politicians and the media - I'm talking about voters. And, yes, I firmly believe that, had Remain won 52-48, the vast majority of Leave voters would have just shut up and got on with their lives.

Brize

Heartfeltdawn said:

The number of people who asked me for pens because they had read online that votes for Leave could be rubbed out: about 30.

I would suggest that what's happened since the referendum vindicates that paranoia - the establishment was, and is, very much for Remain.

digitalscream

Brize said:

Heartfeltdawn said:

The number of people who asked me for pens because they had read online that votes for Leave could be rubbed out: about 30.

I would suggest that what's happened since the referendum vindicates that paranoia - the establishment was, and is, very much for Remain.

And I would suggest that even the briefest of brief thoughts re: reality and the result shows that such paranoia was utter foolishness believed by people who couldn't think their way out of a paper bag...pretty much as anybody with a brain had already surmised before the referendum.

If the establishment was very much for Remain and could have changed the result that easily...what, you think the slim margin of the result was just an oversight on their part?

Brize

digitalscream said:

And I would suggest that even the briefest of brief thoughts re: reality and the result shows that such paranoia was utter foolishness believed by people who couldn't think their way out of a paper bag...pretty much as anybody with a brain had already surmised before the referendum.

If the establishment was very much for Remain and could have changed the result that easily...what, you think the slim margin of the result was just an oversight on their part?

The establishment thought that the 'right' result was in the bag, just like the bookies.

digitalscream

Brize said:

digitalscream said:

And I would suggest that even the briefest of brief thoughts re: reality and the result shows that such paranoia was utter foolishness believed by people who couldn't think their way out of a paper bag...pretty much as anybody with a brain had already surmised before the referendum.

If the establishment was very much for Remain and could have changed the result that easily...what, you think the slim margin of the result was just an oversight on their part?

The establishment thought that the 'right' result was in the bag, just like the bookies.

So...explain to me how the paranoia was vindicated? If they thought it was in the bag, why would they need to change results?

Brize

digitalscream said:

So...explain to me how the paranoia was vindicated? If they thought it was in the bag, why would they need to change results?

The broader point is that certain quarters of the establishment have been quite happy to disregard the result of the referendum. Special mentions go to Owen Smith and Caroline Lucas, who, along with 25 other MPS, voted for the Referendum Bill and against the Article 50 Bill. At least Ken Clarke was consistent.

Brize

digitalscream said:

If the establishment was very much for Remain and could have changed the result that easily...what, you think the slim margin of the result was just an oversight on their part?

The margin would probably have been more emphatic had more people used pens.

j/k

Jimbro66

Wasn't this thread about Blair? Is it going to degenerate into yet another for/against Brexit thread blah blah blah blah..... Didn't we have more than enough of that in the forum last year? Like it or not there was a democratic decision and all the opinionating in the world is not going to change it. It's a done deal.

Brize

Jimbro66 said:

Like it or not there was a democratic decision and all the opinionating in the world is not going to change it. It's a done deal.

Well, that's kinda the point - Blair is trying to lead a movement that suggests it's not a done deal, with the idea of a second referendum once we have a clearer picture of what the UK's exit deal will look like. The problem, of course, is that the prospect of a second referendum would weaken the UK's negotiating position.

Bridgehouse

Brize said:

Jimbro66 said:

Like it or not there was a democratic decision and all the opinionating in the world is not going to change it. It's a done deal.

Well, that's kinda the point - Blair is trying to lead a movement that suggests it's not a done deal, with the idea of a second referendum once we have a clearer picture of what the UK's exit deal will look like. The problem, of course, is that the prospect of a second referendum would weaken the UK's negotiating position.

That implies that there is any strength to our negotiating position to start with...

Brize

Bridgehouse said:

That implies that there is any strength to our negotiating position to start with...

Exports from the UK to the EU: £220 billion.

Exports from the EU to the UK: £290 billion.

Bridgehouse

Brize said:

Bridgehouse said:

That implies that there is any strength to our negotiating position to start with...

Exports from the UK to the EU: £220 billion.

Exports from the EU to the UK: £290 billion.

My comment was neither pro or anti leaving.

It was more a comment on the fact that EU leaders have got sand in their collective vaj's and seem determined to teach us a lesson regardless.

Remember, they are politicians - just like our remain-friendly Blair, and would think nothing of knackering their exports to the UK to give the 'eenglish a bloody nose' 

ICBM

Brize said:

Jimbro66 said:

Like it or not there was a democratic decision and all the opinionating in the world is not going to change it. It's a done deal.

Well, that's kinda the point - Blair is trying to lead a movement that suggests it's not a done deal, with the idea of a second referendum once we have a clearer picture of what the UK's exit deal will look like. The problem, of course, is that the prospect of a second referendum would weaken the UK's negotiating position.

There shouldn't be a second referendum.

What should happen is exactly the due process which has been started now. The referendum *was* purely advisory, but parliament has been advised, and they have now started to act on it. That is, and always was, the correct process regardless of what some Leavers seem to think. If parliament chooses to amend or reject the proposal to leave because it doesn't add up and they think it's not in the country's best interests, that's what they're elected for. If they choose to pass it because they're reflecting the votes of their constituents, that's *also* what they're elected for. They have to weigh up the conflicting arguments - that's their job and is why we have a parliament. If they pass it, then so be it.

Blair should just keep his nose out. It's true that you should listen to the message and not the messenger, but he's proved so duplicitous in the past that you can't now separate the two completely. If he's in favour of something you have to ask what his angle is.

exocet

Brize said:

Bridgehouse said:

That implies that there is any strength to our negotiating position to start with...

Exports from the UK to the EU: £220 billion.

Exports from the EU to the UK: £290 billion.

The other way to look at trade balance is as a % of GDP.

UK to EU = 13% of UK GDP

EU to UK = 3% EU GDP

So if it all goes "Pete Tong" the UK has the biggest budgetary hole to fill when measured as % of total GDP.

Sambostar

marantz1300 said:

how rude.
theres no need for name calling.
pissflap lips.

Sorry forgot the you big jiggly boob

Were plenty of valid reasons at the time to believe the vote would be rigged.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/664022/Ukip-postal-voting-fraud-Paul-Nuttall-EU-referendum

digitalscream

Sambostar said:

marantz1300 said:

how rude.
theres no need for name calling.
pissflap lips.

Sorry forgot the you big jiggly boob

Were plenty of valid reasons at the time to believe the vote would be rigged.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/664022/Ukip-postal-voting-fraud-Paul-Nuttall-EU-referendum

Really? Paul Nuttall is hardly a reliable witness - particularly given that all had was one actual proven instance of voter fraud over two years prior, and a whole bunch of unproven allegations. This is the same guy who lied about the Hillsborough disaster, claimed to be on the board of charities who'd never heard of him and publicly suggested killing the leader of the SNP.

That's hardly a single valid reason, much less plenty of them.

Funnily enough, he went very quiet once the result was in, as was entirely predictable.