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Nil Satis Nisi Optimum
I can't see Brexit changing that.
In any case, it would be ridiculous to have 1.8m people in NI dictate what 62m+ people in the RUK can and can't do.
That would be like Leeds decided to veto Brexit
Nil Satis Nisi Optimum
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2016-2017/0132/cbill_2016-20170132_en_1.htm
A small poll of less than 200 people, conducted on Facebook, and one that Labour Leave admit is hardly a shining example of running a good poll. And they said that the GE polling was shite...
Apparently Labour Leave donated £18,500 to UKIP just prior to the EU referendum. Politics first, beliefs second? And it is interesting to see where some of Labour Leave's funds come from...
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/01/labour-leave-try-and-boost-ukips-chances-in-stoke-with-a-voodoo-poll/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034
"Bristol voted strongly Remain on the whole (62%), but there were some striking exceptions, particularly the large, deprived, mainly white estates to the south of the city. Hartcliffe and Withywood backed Leave at 67%. Similar neighbouring wards (Hengrove and Whitchurch Park, Filwood, Bishopsworth and Stockwood) also voted Leave, as did the more industrial area of Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston to the north west of the city."
This is why I thought it relevant to bring up Bristol because the data released for this BBC investigation is exactly what I was seeing last year. Now politically Bristol has 4 MPs. The North West is Toryland but the other three are East, South, and West Labour areas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Bristol#Westminster_representation
It's those Southern areas that voted Leave who were also voting firmly in favour of a Labour mayor the month beforehand. It's also some of those Southern areas who voted for a UKIP mayor, put Labour as their second choice, and then voted Leave. That's why I say that future elections will be interesting as the referendum was very much one based on one's personal beliefs and not one based on party loyalty. Finding out which is stronger in future elections, party loyalty or personal beliefs, is going to be key for successful candidates.
my gutfeel, with less evidence than you have, is that many labour voters will vote UKIP in the national Election, labour in the local
the gutfeel is based on the fact that I feel like doing it to try to wake Labour up, but I know I won't
because for the first time in my life I've actually considered voting Liberal, because the Tories can't be trusted, Labour is a joke, UKIP makes no sense to me at all, the Libs will remain in the EU and no matter how hard they try I cannot imagine them being more shit than the others..
ah yeah… and to stick it to the majority of the leavers for ramming how right they are down everyone's throats even though most arguments I hear from them generally spiral towards immigration [the bulk of which has been within the gov's ability to sort out all along, so it's a non-argument with respect to the EU]..
the killer thing that would put me off wanting to re-join the EU though is having anything to do with Juncker
he's by far a smug enough tosser without having the UK go back to him saying 'I've changed my mind'
if Art 50 was triggered and then there was a Lib victory resulting in a remain, he'd turn his dickhead setting to max and the UK would end up getting stuffed royally by him..
so here we are.. screwed if ya do… screwed if ya don't..
the real issue is that the govt:
- was stupid and careless enough to have such an ill thought through referendum in the first place
- seriously let down the people of this country by not taking their very real concerns seriously enough to do something meaningful about them
- was so deeply short sighted that their sights were set only on how to get their election victory at the cost of the people that granted them the last one
and the final part in this was that the EU themselves were so head-up-own-ass, that they completely failed to consider the UK leaving to be even a remote possibility, so they just took the piss out of Cameron's piss poor attempt at getting some reforms.. so the bag of meaningless shite they gave him to wave in front of the British people was nothing sort of an insult to all of us…
now the really funny thing is… I have all this hatred for the EU yet I voted to remain, and would again..
EDIT: in writing the post above I think I've just realised that I didn't want to leave or remain..
I just wanted to hate everyone… lmao
Stoke on Trent Central: turnout was 11.7% down from the GE, Copeland was 12.4% down. This is consistent across by-election history, rarely does a by-election pull in more voters than a GE.
The 69% Leave vote for Stoke Central didn't result in a UKIP win for Nuttall. It does suggest that the referendum was a true 'gut feeling' consultation of the general public.
Where UKIP go now will be hard. Europe isn't enough for them. The need to develop into more than a one-issue party is vital.
For Labour, Copeland doesn't weaken them in a new way. A nuclear-heavy area was never going to be saluting the anti-nuclear Corbyn. It only reinforces the idea that Corbyn Labour will alienate certain Northern areas but not all of them, As the Stoke result showed.
This. And who would want Nuttal as their MP.
The results at the top:
Gareth Snell, Labour 7,853
Paul Nuttall, UKIP 5,233
Jack Brereton, Conservative 5,154
The Tories did pretty well and probably pinched votes from UKIP.
Remember, it's easier to criticise than create!
Until UKIP can convince people that they have effective domestic policies, then they won't get anywhere.
I think it also demonstrates that if Labour fully embraced what we all know is probably Corbyn's private view and supported Leave, they would have done a lot better - it's quite clear which way their core support in the North mostly voted. And I say that even as a Remain voter who has sometimes voted Labour.
"Take these three items, some WD-40, a vise grip, and a roll of duct tape. Any man worth his salt can fix almost any problem with this stuff alone." - Walt Kowalski
"Only two things are infinite - the universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein
16m people voted to remain in the EU, but no parties seem capable of using that as a platform.
UKIP are a bunch of amateurs really, and they couldn't even put up a convincing show with their leader standing here
Anyway , these by-elections have been even worse for Labour than I was imagining, I had wondered if UKIP might steal votes from them, but I wasn't expecting the tories to achieve these kind of results mid-term
I'm not sure if Labour needs to lose this badly in 2020 before they wake up and ditch the idealism
Labour have suffered through a lack of understanding as to what they stand for. That was true of Miliband and has continued with Corbyn, most notably with the EU referendum.
@quarky absolutely. Labour are not credible in this form (and when they're this bad, you have to ask even more questions of UKIP for failing to win in Stoke). The LibDem victory in Richmond wasn't nearly big enough for a major revival (not nearly enough media coverage and Farron still comes over as a prefect looking after the lunchtime dinner queue than a serious leader).
It shows the continual division of the left-leaning world. 16m people voted to remain in the EU but 16m voters still remain achingly divided across a variety of platforms.