EU Referendum Vote - Poll

eSully

Drew_fx;1097199" said:

The conduct of all my 'Remain' friends on Facebook is really fucking pissing me off. They're such snide wankers, they really are.

You're not alone. I've seen quiet a few posts where the level of snidey moral superiority is outrageous. There's not even the mildest attempt to see the other sides argument. I'm right and I don't have to justify it attitude.

People complaining about lack of facts in this thread. Well, I think this thread and the attitude on the forum has been great. Rather than silly name calling people have tried to put forward reasoned arguments. I'm not seeing that so much on my social media

Emp_Fab

People are arseholes.  (not Fretboard people, of course !).

People often want to get one over on their neighbour / friend / colleague.  If they can see a chance to grab the high ground, be it moral, intellectual, whatever, they will usually go for it - irrespective of whether they truly believe what they claim.  E.g. - I reckon a sizeable majority of those beating the 'remain' drum and claiming moral superiority for their inclusiveness and modern attitudes would be the first to complain if a mosque were to be built in their street.

It reminds me of Viz's 'Modern Parents'.  Hypocritical twats who are only really interested in jumping on the populist bandwagon so they can feel all superior and smug when looking down their noses at 'the other side'.  They don't really give a shit about the issues, just their own egos.

TTony

Emp_Fab said:

You know that if you vote IN, you have to house at least two illegal immigrants currently camping in Calais don't you ?

Brussels has said so, in EC2771882/19.

that may not be entirely accurate.

OK, so do you have the correct directive number??

littlegreenman

Chalky said:

littlegreenman;1096761" said:

ToneControl said:



Fretwired said:



ICBM said:

There's often an ounce of truth in many false arguments - it's what can make them seem believable.












Not sure it's a false argument - I've been to the EU Commission and Parliament a few times and know a few MEPs. The guys at the top - Junker and co - really don't like the UK as too much time gets wasted trying to appease us. I'm really surprised they didn't just offer us a trade deal to leave (they still might depending on how the vote goes). It's also not helped by Farage insulting them at every turn in debates.



If we vote to leave my guess is they will effectively create a new level of membership for us (trade and movement) and some of the weaker nations like Greece and Portugal and Denmark which, like the UK, is also Euro-sceptic. The remaining countries are closer aligned economically and could plough ahead with further political and economic integration.










excellent, I was assuming we'd be offered a deal if we vote out

mind you, I'm still not clear why free movement is a prerequisite for free trade





Confirmation bias at it's finest.

Looks like you disagree that there will be a compromise trade deal if we vote out. What do you think will happen then?

I'm saying that it's unlikely we'll be able to have our cake and eat it, leave but keep all the good bits of the EU we do like and ditch the bits we don't. Of course trade will still happen, but at a price. I doubt the rest of the EU will just give us the best deal for us, rather offer us the best deal for them. Why wouldn't they?

Likewise with movement. I think it unlikely we'd suddenly need visa's to travel into Europe, but working on the continent would most likely become more problematic. What happens to the UK nationals living and working on the continent? I've not seen anything specific about that so we don't know as far as I'm aware. If I've missed it I'd be happy for any links.

Leave have stated that EU nationals currently here will be granted Indefinite Leave to Remain which means that not only can they stay, but any children they have after that are automatically British Citizens, the current Treaty Rights agreement requires 5 years continuous residence and employment for the same privilege. Not sure I see that as progress.

I'm currently about 60% v's40% Remain v's Leave. I can see merits for both sides but staying in seems to be edging it for me at the mo'.

hungrymark

Drew_fx;1097199" said:

The conduct of all my 'Remain' friends on Facebook is really fucking pissing me off. They're such snide wankers, they really are.

Likewise, they're all so sanctimonious about it and judgemental about anybody with a conflicting opinion. It makes me want to vote 'out' just to be contrary.

ICBM

I'm not judgemental about it, and I'm not going to stop being friends with anyone over it.

But you're still wrong.

Rocker

Ok guys, time to get off the pot. Time to predict the result. Which may or may not be what you want. Percentage IN or OUT. An RTE London correspondent forecast 51% IN to 49% OUT. She wrote that it is the older generation that want OUT. Anyway let us have your forecast...

Fortheloveofguitar

Rocker;1097540" said:

Ok guys, time to get off the pot. Time to predict the result. Which may or may not be what you want. Percentage IN or OUT. An RTE London correspondent forecast 51% IN to 49% OUT. She wrote that it is the older generation that want OUT. Anyway let us have your forecast...

Going off last years election disaster with polling way off I don't think it will be as close they're making it out to be.

ICBM

Rocker said:

Ok guys, time to get off the pot. Time to predict the result. Which may or may not be what you want. Percentage IN or OUT. An RTE London correspondent forecast 51% IN to 49% OUT. She wrote that it is the older generation that want OUT. Anyway let us have your forecast…

I hope not - that would be dangerous. And especially so if Scotland votes Remain by enough to make the difference when England actually votes Leave. The same if it's a very narrow Leave with Scotland voting Remain.

My forecast is 55% for Remain, just like in the Scottish referendum which had appeared too close to call a couple of weeks beforehand. That wouldn't so bad, but won't be enough to silence the Leave campaign for good. I *hope* it will be a bigger margin - but I don't think it will be.

What I also expect is that if it's Remain by as narrow a margin as a few percent, there will be cries of foul and claims of vote-rigging. I'm not sure that's as likely if it's a narrow Leave.

littlegreenman

Polls and forecasts have been notoriously misleading lately.

Chalky

@littlegreenman said "Of course trade will still happen, but at a price. I doubt the rest of the EU will just give us the best deal for us, rather offer us the best deal for them. Why wouldn't they?"

Because it is not THEM offering US a trade deal. It is not a customer supplier relationship - seems the majority of Remain voters are completely ignorant of what a trade agreement it. Almost every EU company who does business with UK companies will lobby their governments to keep the trade agreement with the UK as is, in effect. Change the title of any legal docs but effectively keep it the same.

littlegreenman

Chalky said:

@littlegreenman said "Of course trade will still happen, but at a price. I doubt the rest of the EU will just give us the best deal for us, rather offer us the best deal for them. Why wouldn't they?"

Because it is not THEM offering US a trade deal. It is not a customer supplier relationship - seems the majority of Remain voters are completely ignorant of what a trade agreement it. Almost every EU company who does business with UK companies will lobby their governments to keep the trade agreement with the UK as is, in effect. Change the title of any legal docs but effectively keep it the same.

OK, so I'm ignorant about international trade, no surprises there. I had the naive idea that trade generally is a customer/ supplier relationship.

Care to explain it in layman's terms as to what actually goes on?

UnclePsychosis

littlegreenman said:
I'm saying that it's unlikely we'll be able to have our cake and eat it, leave but keep all the good bits of the EU we do like and ditch the bits we don't. Of course trade will still happen, but at a price. I doubt the rest of the EU will just give us the best deal for us, rather offer us the best deal for them. Why wouldn't they?
Brexit campaigners would have you believe that the French and Germans and the other dominant voices in the EU hate us and don't have the UK's interests at heart but that these same countries will just turn round and offer us any deal we want on any terms we want if we vote to leave.They think we get a bad deal now, why they think we'll get better ones when we're not in the club doesn't really make sense.  

Sambostar

UnclePsychosis said:

littlegreenman said:

I'm saying that it's unlikely we'll be able to have our cake and eat it, leave but keep all the good bits of the EU we do like and ditch the bits we don't. Of course trade will still happen, but at a price. I doubt the rest of the EU will just give us the best deal for us, rather offer us the best deal for them. Why wouldn't they?

Brexit campaigners would have you believe that the French and Germans and the other dominant voices in the EU hate us and don't have the UK's interests at heart but that these same countries will just turn round and offer us any deal we want on any terms we want if we vote to leave.They think we get a bad deal now, why they think we'll get better ones when we're not in the club doesn't really make sense.  

Erm, this is your OPINION and is not factually based at all.  Therefore it is nothing more than fear mongering. 

It's no secret that Germany's GDP boomed in early Spring and imports and sales for German cars in the UK market peaked at their highest level ever in April.

I really think it's because you don't all want to drive Japanese or Korean or Indian cars and want your service contract on your Mercs fulfilled, that is the real reason you are all voting in isn't it.

littlegreenman

Sambostar said:

UnclePsychosis said:

littlegreenman said:

I'm saying that it's unlikely we'll be able to have our cake and eat it, leave but keep all the good bits of the EU we do like and ditch the bits we don't. Of course trade will still happen, but at a price. I doubt the rest of the EU will just give us the best deal for us, rather offer us the best deal for them. Why wouldn't they?

Brexit campaigners would have you believe that the French and Germans and the other dominant voices in the EU hate us and don't have the UK's interests at heart but that these same countries will just turn round and offer us any deal we want on any terms we want if we vote to leave.They think we get a bad deal now, why they think we'll get better ones when we're not in the club doesn't really make sense.  

[Quote] Erm, this is your OPINION and is not factually based at all.  Therefore it is nothing more than fear mongering. 

It's no secret that Germany's GDP boomed in early Spring and imports and sales for German cars in the UK market peaked at their highest level ever in April.

I really think it's because you don't all want to drive Japanese or Korean or Indian cars and want your service contract on your Mercs fulfilled, that is the real reason you are all voting in isn't it. [/quote]

I don't drive a car

Chalky

littlegreenman;1097595" said:

Chalky said:

@littlegreenman said "Of course trade will still happen, but at a price. I doubt the rest of the EU will just give us the best deal for us, rather offer us the best deal for them. Why wouldn't they?"



Because it is not THEM offering US a trade deal. It is not a customer supplier relationship - seems the majority of Remain voters are completely ignorant of what a trade agreement it. Almost every EU company who does business with UK companies will lobby their governments to keep the trade agreement with the UK as is, in effect. Change the title of any legal docs but effectively keep it the same.












OK, so I'm ignorant about international trade, no surprises there. I had the naive idea that trade generally is a customer/ supplier relationship.



Care to explain it in layman's terms as to what actually goes on?

Couple of things to understand to start with:

a) Unlike Customer-Supplier relationships, trade between two countries is always bi-directional.
EU companies will sell goods and services to the UK companies and customers.
UK companies will sell goods and services to EU companies and customers.
So if, for example, the trade agreement is 'bad for sellers' then its bad for sellers on both sides.

b) Two main approaches to international trade.

Protectionism is the targeted application of limits on what can be imported, quotas of the maximum number that can be imported, or tariffs on what is imported so the price is hiked up by a tax to dissuade buyers.

Free trade was invented by Britain and is what we have in the EU - no limits, quotas or tariffs. Nothing to hinder sellers or buyers in 'doing business'. Free trade is increasingly sought because the predominant world political view is that trade is good.

A trade agreement can be a mix of the two approaches, varied by the categories of goods and services. For example, it could agree free trade on all engineered and manufactured products that contain steel but place a tariff on raw steel in an attempt to help our own steelworks. So the price of foreign steel would hiked by the tariff, making Port Talbot steel more competitive. German car manufacturers would be happy but German specialist steel makers might not be.

So this is where the concept of 'negotiating a trade agreement' begins. Amongst all categories of goods and services, there will be some where there is a political will to have free trade or apply protectionism.

But for simplicity lets go back to my steel example. Would Merkel agree to it? German car manufacturers will lobby her to agree it - free trade on their car sales is precisely what they want. German specialist steel makers will lobby her to disagree - they won't want tariffs. Merkel might look at the values of their exports and see that German car sales are a billion a month while German steel sales are only a tenth of that. So she might choose to agree the deal. Note that the pressure on Merkel is from fellow Germans, not us!

Quite likely she would find other goods and services where she could put a tariff on what the UK sold to Germany. So she might suggest an import tariff on say Rolls Royces sold in Germany. This would please German car makers and get the UK to rethink the steel tariff.

This used to be called Trade Wars when these tariffs were unilaterally introduced by either side on a tit-for-tat basis.

But would the UK stick to the steel tariff to aid Port Talbot? Rolls Royce would lobby the UK government to get the tariff removed from their car sales in Germany. So maybe we'd drop the steel tariff and Merkel would drop the Rolls Royce tariff.

Now repeat the above across ALL categories of goods and services and you start to see that such negotiations can take many years! But trade happens every day and cannot stop - its how money gets into company bank accounts to pay wages. How much easier to keep 99% the same as now? Very much easier and what almost all EU companies will lobby for. Again, the pressure on the EU is from within, not us!

So this grossly simplified and miniaturised worked example hopefully gives you some idea of what 'negotiating a trade agreement' means. I hope you can also see that it is silly to think that the EU can penalise the UK through an adverse trade agreement.

ToneControl

ICBM said:

Rocker said:

Ok guys, time to get off the pot. Time to predict the result. Which may or may not be what you want. Percentage IN or OUT. An RTE London correspondent forecast 51% IN to 49% OUT. She wrote that it is the older generation that want OUT. Anyway let us have your forecast…

I hope not - that would be dangerous. And especially so if Scotland votes Remain by enough to make the difference when England actually votes Leave. The same if it's a very narrow Leave with Scotland voting Remain.

My forecast is 55% for Remain, just like in the Scottish referendum which had appeared too close to call a couple of weeks beforehand. That wouldn't so bad, but won't be enough to silence the Leave campaign for good. I *hope* it will be a bigger margin - but I don't think it will be.

What I also expect is that if it's Remain by as narrow a margin as a few percent, there will be cries of foul and claims of vote-rigging. I'm not sure that's as likely if it's a narrow Leave.

is there any indication that Scots are more keen to remain?

littlegreenman

Thanks, makes a little more sense now.

So, in the event of a Leave vote, will we be negotiating a trade agreement with the EU as a single entity, or with individual member states?

Former sounds not so bad, latter sounds like a ball-ache.

TTony

ToneControl said:

is there any indication that Scots are more keen to remain?

The popular / accepted line is that the Scots would rather be part of Europe than part of the UK.

Mr ICBM can probably tell us what the official SNP line is.

Their relationship with the EU would be very different to England's relationship.  Very different funds flow, very different peoples flow.

Chalky

The EU. But Merkel is the EU...