EU Referendum Vote - Poll

ICBM

Highly optimistic if you think that politicians aren't going to respond to populist pressure on a range of issues including trade. It also depends on what happens to the exchange rate between the pound and the Euro if we leave - that will make quite a big difference, and it's outside the control of governments or industrialists.

Chalky

I've given worked examples, grossly simplified of course. Please give examples of:

1) how EU politicians might respond to populist pressure regarding trade.

2) the drivers that would cause populist pressure.

ICBM

Chalky said:

I've given worked examples, grossly simplified of course. Please give examples of:

1) how EU politicians might respond to populist pressure regarding trade.

2) the drivers that would cause populist pressure.

How EU politicians might respond to populist pressure regarding trade: by putting up barriers to the UK getting a universal free-trade agreement.

The drivers that would cause populist pressure: the idea that the UK wants to cherry-pick the bits it wants from the EU without having to actually contribute anything to it.

AKA The French.

Chalky

'Putting up barriers' is the usual metaphorical twaddle, like 'give us a bad deal'.

No metaphors please, just practical statements. What might the EU do?

Pass a new law? Saying what?

Amend a treaty? Saying what?

Renege on current treaties? By doing what?

I'm assuming you aren't going to suggest they would break the law...

Scare stories always evaporate when you analyse them.

TTony

Emp_Fab said:

Currently, remain is in the lead.

Well, that's pretty decisively indecisive.

So I took a look at the what the "experts" are projecting.  Per the title, this is the aggregation of all the various polls (and yes, I know, polls can be unreliable, but ...)

That's also decisively indecisive.

If - and it looks likely - the most important question we're going to have to give an answer on since a long time ago ends up with the country so clearly split, what happens next?

Something has to happen next, because unless there's a significant majority one way or another, neither side can claim that the question has been answered and that they have a valid mandate from the population to decide in or out.

TTony

Fretwired

ICBM said:

No, I'm just surprised we've sold as much as £550 million-worth of stuff to the US.

We sell billions to the US. Our armour technology is sold around the world - the latest version, Dorchester, is becoming standard on NATO tanks. Even the Germans are using it.

The Germans are hoping to conclude a US deal for $5 billion for armoured fighting vehicles and the US are looking at getting a new battle tank. It looks like they are interested in working with Germany on the Leopard 3. The UK closed it's only tank factory so we'll probably end up with Leopard 3 as well or just stick with the ageing Challenger.

The UK scores in high tech - we're actually better at it than the Yanks. The BAe Railgun is impressive and we're probably ahead of the US in advanced drone technology and lasers. Our subs are the quietest (the Yanks are buying our tech) and our new frigates are the stealthiest in the world.

The French want a piece of the action and in fairness they score highly in making decent kit for not a lot of money. The Dassault Rafale is an impressive plane - fighter, bomber and carrier-based aircraft. It would probably lose to a Typhoon in a dog fight but then again the Typhoon is an expensive pile of crap. Right now it's the last thing the RAF needs.

ToneControl

ICBM said:

TTony said:

ToneControl said:

is there any indication that Scots are more keen to remain?

The popular / accepted line is that the Scots would rather be part of Europe than part of the UK.

Mr ICBM can probably tell us what the official SNP line is.

I can't tell you official position - I'm not an SNP member, and I haven't bothered to check - but it's very clear that the SNP want to remain in the EU. They say they wouldn't call for a second referendum after a Leave vote, but I wouldn't be surprised if that changes if it becomes clear a majority of the population would support it. Essentially their position seems to be that they won't call for another referendum unless they know they will win.

The polls have shown a consistent and strong Remain vote in Scotland, averaging about a 20% gap - the latest I can find is 54% Remain, 32% Leave, 14% Don't Know. But support for independence hasn't shifted much and is still showing a small majority against, even in the event of a Leave vote - No 47%, Yes 44%, Don't Know 8%. So I can understand the SNP's caution.

( http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls )

seems bizarre to me, nearly half the Scots want to be independent of RUK, which is economically and socially almost identical, yet far fewer want to be independent of peoples who are very different and very foreign, and far far poorer

ToneControl

ICBM said:

Chalky said:

Only if you think our trade with the EU disappears - which it cannot.

Not at all - but it *may* fall. How much also matters, because it's much larger than the trade with anywhere else, so even a small drop could make a big difference.

I don't know the answers to this and I'm sure you don't either - which is not a put-down, since no-one does. But it does put a big question mark over whether we will be as well off outside the EU as the optimists assert.

if the sales from the EU fall, that would be great for us, would it not?

Modulus_Amps

ToneControl said:

seems bizarre to me, nearly half the Scots want to be independent of RUK, which is economically and socially almost identical, yet far fewer want to be independent of peoples who are very different and very foreign, and far far poorer

yes very bazarre indeed, I cant understand why those who voted Yes are now voting to remain, on the otherside allot of people who I know voted no are voting to leave the EU, probably comes down to identity??

Modulus_Amps

ToneControl said:

if the sales from the EU fall, that would be great for us, would it not?

Imagine if we had to stop buying wind turbines from the EU and were forced to build the infrastructure here to engineer and manufacture them ourselves.. how horrible would that be....

Phil_aka_Pip

littlegreenman said:

mind you, I'm still not clear why free movement is a prerequisite for free trade

I'm saying that it's unlikely we'll be able to have our cake and eat it, leave but keep all the good bits of the EU we do like and ditch the bits we don't. Of course trade will still happen, but at a price. I doubt the rest of the EU will just give us the best deal for us, rather offer us the best deal for them. Why wouldn't they?

Likewise with movement. I think it unlikely we'd suddenly need visa's to travel into Europe, but working on the continent would most likely become more problematic. What happens to the UK nationals living and working on the continent? I've not seen anything specific about that so we don't know as far as I'm aware. If I've missed it I'd be happy for any links.

Well that's what the French do, they implement the bits they like and ignore the bits they don't. I'd have less distaste for the EU if we did the same.

Fretwired

littlegreenman said:

I'm saying that it's unlikely we'll be able to have our cake and eat it, leave but keep all the good bits of the EU we do like and ditch the bits we don't. Of course trade will still happen, but at a price. I doubt the rest of the EU will just give us the best deal for us, rather offer us the best deal for them. Why wouldn't they?

Likewise with movement. I think it unlikely we'd suddenly need visa's to travel into Europe, but working on the continent would most likely become more problematic. What happens to the UK nationals living and working on the continent? I've not seen anything specific about that so we don't know as far as I'm aware. If I've missed it I'd be happy for any links.

Leave have stated that EU nationals currently here will be granted Indefinite Leave to Remain which means that not only can they stay, but any children they have after that are automatically British Citizens, the current Treaty Rights agreement requires 5 years continuous residence and employment for the same privilege. Not sure I see that as progress.

I'm currently about 60% v's40% Remain v's Leave. I can see merits for both sides but staying in seems to be edging it for me at the mo'.

Actually if we left we could trade with zero tariffs. The EU and UK are signed up to WTO/EFTA so trade wise nothing will change unless the EU wants to start a trade war which I doubt.

The truth the Remain people won't face is were are not full EU members. We are not part of the Eurozone, we moan and try to get our own deal on everything which makes us unpopular and ensures that no Britain holds high office. Junker has said there will never be a UK president of the EU. If we left we might all get on better with each other.

A vote for Remain is a vote for the little Britain in Europe arsehole attitude that gets our neighbours backs up.

Fretwired

littlegreenman said:

I'm saying that it's unlikely we'll be able to have our cake and eat it, leave but keep all the good bits of the EU we do like and ditch the bits we don't. Of course trade will still happen, but at a price. I doubt the rest of the EU will just give us the best deal for us, rather offer us the best deal for them. Why wouldn't they?

Likewise with movement. I think it unlikely we'd suddenly need visa's to travel into Europe, but working on the continent would most likely become more problematic. What happens to the UK nationals living and working on the continent? I've not seen anything specific about that so we don't know as far as I'm aware. If I've missed it I'd be happy for any links.

Leave have stated that EU nationals currently here will be granted Indefinite Leave to Remain which means that not only can they stay, but any children they have after that are automatically British Citizens, the current Treaty Rights agreement requires 5 years continuous residence and employment for the same privilege. Not sure I see that as progress.

I'm currently about 60% v's40% Remain v's Leave. I can see merits for both sides but staying in seems to be edging it for me at the mo'.

Actually if we left we could trade with zero tariffs. The EU and UK are signed up to WTO/EFTA so trade wise nothing will change unless the EU wants to start a trade war which I doubt.

The truth the Remain people won't face is were are not full EU members. We are not part of the Eurozone, we moan and try to get our own deal on everything which makes us unpopular and ensures that no Britain holds high office. Junker has said there will never be a UK president of the EU. If we left we might all get on better with each other.

A vote for Remain is a vote for the little Britain in Europe arsehole attitude that gets our neighbours backs up.

Sambostar

Sunrise in 5 hours.   I vote for chaos and oblivion  Why people like people like me are alive confounds me in the face of the family unit.  Juncker is a fucking Martian.  People need to harden up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSUIQgEVDM4

UnclePsychosis

Modulus_Amps said:

ToneControl said:

seems bizarre to me, nearly half the Scots want to be independent of RUK, which is economically and socially almost identical, yet far fewer want to be independent of peoples who are very different and very foreign, and far far poorer

yes very bazarre indeed, I cant understand why those who voted Yes are now voting to remain, on the otherside allot of people who I know voted no are voting to leave the EU, probably comes down to identity??

There's a lot of double-think from both sets of "leavers"---Scottish Nationalists and British Nationalists like UKIP. None of them will recognise the hypocrisy. 

Boris Johnson (to give one example, there are others) was an extremely vocal critic of Scottish Independence and insisted that Scotland should accept the (extremely restrictive, in comparison to the terms of being in the EU) British union but now all of a sudden thinks that self-determination needs to be obtained at all costs. Similarly there are lots of Scottish Nationalists who 18 months ago believed in self-determination at all costs but who still want to be in the EU because all of a sudden they realise that giving up absolute sovereignty for benefit is ok after all. 

chillidoggy

Yeah, but what else would you expect from Boris? The Leave campaign should replace him in favour of a more stable, less volatile character, like Sambostar for example.

Snap

I was reading something on the BBC this morning that I think has solidity - the notion that in the event of a Leave vote, parliament will vote for, and pass, membership of the singel market, so that a lot of what people voting leave for, will actually not happen - ie we will still have to align with EU law, and will have open borders. Same as Swiss, Norwegians etc.

Besides, I think remain will win by a big margin. People don't like change and unknowns, and Leave is one big unknown.

UnclePsychosis

Snap;1099287" said:

I was reading something on the BBC this morning that I think has solidity - the notion that in the event of a Leave vote, parliament will vote for, and pass, membership of the singel market, so that a lot of what people voting leave for, will actually not happen - ie we will still have to align with EU law, and will have open borders. Same as Swiss, Norwegians

There's going to be lots of disappointed "leavers" regardless of what happens. Lots of what left-wing leavers and right-wing leavers want are mutually incompatible.

Modulus_Amps

Its one thing to align our laws with EU law, but another to have them overrule your own courts.

I think remain will win too, but I don't think leave is a big unknown, it is a little unknown and most of that unknown won't affect most of us.
In my head this is not really camparible to the Scottish referendum, we are not as tied into the EU as Scotland is in GB...YET!
so the consequences of an out vote are much smaller.

@UnclePsychosis I think the "no" voters who are now going to vote to leave are doing so because they identify with being British and have some pride in that and want to see GB do well, which justifies both voting positions. I cannot for the life of me understand why a yes voter would now vote remain other than to stick it to Westminster or they are under the delusion that the EU will be better than the British Union in the long term.

@littlegreenman said:
According to the Leave campaign, EU migrants currently in the UK would be given Indefinite Leave to Remain status, so could continue to come and go as they please. What would happen to the Brits over there remains to be seen.

I suspect that they will be given the right to "apply" for leave to remain, which comes at a very high cost, bringing money into the coffers, The home office doesn't do anything for nothing. I think this is fair as I had to go through the same costly process too BTW

Home Office Immigration & Nationality Charges 2016
Fees category	Current Fee	New fee from 18 March 2016
Indefinite leave to remain	£1,500	£1,875
Leave to remain – Other	£649	£811
Leave to enter for persons in the  UK who are liable to immigration detention	£649	£811