EU Referendum Vote - Poll

UnclePsychosis

ToneControl said:

ICBM said:

Rocker said:

Ok guys, time to get off the pot. Time to predict the result. Which may or may not be what you want. Percentage IN or OUT. An RTE London correspondent forecast 51% IN to 49% OUT. She wrote that it is the older generation that want OUT. Anyway let us have your forecast…

I hope not - that would be dangerous. And especially so if Scotland votes Remain by enough to make the difference when England actually votes Leave. The same if it's a very narrow Leave with Scotland voting Remain.

My forecast is 55% for Remain, just like in the Scottish referendum which had appeared too close to call a couple of weeks beforehand. That wouldn't so bad, but won't be enough to silence the Leave campaign for good. I *hope* it will be a bigger margin - but I don't think it will be.

What I also expect is that if it's Remain by as narrow a margin as a few percent, there will be cries of foul and claims of vote-rigging. I'm not sure that's as likely if it's a narrow Leave.

is there any indication that Scots are more keen to remain? 

Survation poll last month had Remain at 76% in Scotland. UKIP get pisspoor results in Scotland (1.6% share of the vote) and the SNP/Greens/Scottish Labour are all in favour of the EU. Ruth Davidson, who is the only Scottish Tory with any real influence is also strongly in favour of Remain although officially the Scottish Conservatives are allowing their MSPs to campaign as they see fit.

Modulus_Amps

The way I see it, if there is an exit vote the migrant population is going to be the leverage to push through negotiations. The UK could not afford a mass exodus regardless of it being forced or willing.

1.2m Brits living in EU and 3.3m EU migrants in the UK according to this site:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/354

Dont forget that the single market is not only accessed by EU member states, the four countries in the EFTA participate in the EU single market.

littlegreenman

Modulus_Amps said:

The way I see it, if there is an exit vote the migrant population is going to be the leverage to push through negotiations. The UK could not afford a mass exodus regardless of it being forced or willing.

1.2m Brits living in EU and 3.3m EU migrants in the UK according to this site:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/354

Dont forget that the single market is not only accessed by EU member states, the four countries in the EFTA participate in the EU single market.

According to the Leave campaign, EU migrants currently in the UK would be given Indefinite Leave to Remain status, so could continue to come and go as they please. What would happen to the Brits over there remains to be seen.

ICBM

TTony said:

ToneControl said:

is there any indication that Scots are more keen to remain?

The popular / accepted line is that the Scots would rather be part of Europe than part of the UK.

Mr ICBM can probably tell us what the official SNP line is.

I can't tell you official position - I'm not an SNP member, and I haven't bothered to check - but it's very clear that the SNP want to remain in the EU. They say they wouldn't call for a second referendum after a Leave vote, but I wouldn't be surprised if that changes if it becomes clear a majority of the population would support it. Essentially their position seems to be that they won't call for another referendum unless they know they will win.

The polls have shown a consistent and strong Remain vote in Scotland, averaging about a 20% gap - the latest I can find is 54% Remain, 32% Leave, 14% Don't Know. But support for independence hasn't shifted much and is still showing a small majority against, even in the event of a Leave vote - No 47%, Yes 44%, Don't Know 8%. So I can understand the SNP's caution.

( http://whatscotlandthinks.org/opinion-polls )

eSully

From this mornings Facebook feed

Mkjackary

eSully;1097926" said:

From this mornings Facebook feed

The people who make this and constantly moan about how everyone that votes leave is a dick, make me wanna vote leave just to piss them off.

ICBM

I agree with you about the spoof form. It's patronising, and not even funny. And I don't think the majority of Leavers are racist.

But I'm still not going to vote Leave just because someone on my side is an arse, that would be repeating the same mistake.

eSully

John major on BBC now. "This is far far bigger than a General election" never a truer word said.

Mkjackary;1097947" said:

[quote="eSully;1097926"]From this mornings Facebook feed

The people who make this and constantly moan about how everyone that votes leave is a dick, make me wanna vote leave just to piss them off.[/quote]

I don't see how someone who makes something like that is any better than a leave voter who's voting leave cause they don't like immigrants. Although, please don't vote leave just to piss them off. That's the opposite of why I posted it

Modulus_Amps

UnclePsychosis said:

ToneControl said:

is there any indication that Scots are more keen to remain? 

Survation poll last month had Remain at 76% in Scotland. UKIP get pisspoor results in Scotland (1.6% share of the vote) and the SNP/Greens/Scottish Labour are all in favour of the EU. Ruth Davidson, who is the only Scottish Tory with any real influence is also strongly in favour of Remain although officially the Scottish Conservatives are allowing their MSPs to campaign as they see fit.

From the conversations I have had I don't think those will be the numbers reflected in the Scottish vote, it will be close. maybe it is just the region I live in.

TTony

eSully said:

From this mornings Facebook feed

Ahhh, "Facebook".

Fretwired

Drew_fx said:

The conduct of all my 'Remain' friends on Facebook is really fucking pissing me off. They're such snide wankers, they really are.

@Drew_fx the same here. There seems to be a large number of people who are not interested in the EU debate and seem more intent on using this to attack the Tory Party. A classic line of attack seems to be workers rights - if you believe half of what's on the Facebook then before we joined the EU the UK had no workers rights (which is total bollocks). The moment we vote to leave there will be a "Bonfire of workers rights" and we'll simply take the US model. "Look forward to two weeks annual leave and instant firing" wrote one poster. They seem to have forgotten that the Tories have taken millions of people out of the tax system (to make work pay) and brought in the living wage which is higher than other EU countries.

We even had it on Question Time last week with Owen Jones taking this line only to be put down by Labour MP Frank Field who pointed out the UK had better workers rights than most in the EU for years.

I see it as a problem with social media. People can hang out in safe spaces with other like-minded people and avoid having to listen to, or engage with views that are different to their own. When confronted with views they don't like the they scream and rant ...

It would be interesting to see how the debate unfolded were a Labour government in power and their leader was recommending remain, whilst cabinet members were recommending leave. I bet the tone would be different.

ICBM

Fretwired said:

There seems to be a large number of people who are not interested in the EU debate and seem more intent on using this to attack the Tory Party.

Obviously those with no knowledge of history, since a large part of the Tory party has always been more pro-Europe than most of the Labour Party. I know this will sound odd to those who associate the Tories with raving Eurosceptics, but that's the exact reason it's torn the Tory Party apart. Old-school Tories like Ken Clarke and Chris Patten are among the most pro-EU of any British politicians. Only their desire to hang together rather than be hung separately has kept the Tories as a single party - rightly from their point of view, since it kept them in power while the left, which has a small natural majority in the UK - again contrary to what a lot of people think - have rarely been able to work together to shut them out.

If the Tories do finally split after this - which I think is a possibility - then the left wing of the party may still be the larger of the two.

Fretwired said:

The moment we vote to leave there will be a "Bonfire of workers rights" and we'll simply take the US model.

As you know, the possibility of adopting the US model worries me, but not particularly because of workers' rights - more because of the influence of large corporations, the military and foreign policy.

Fretwired said:

It would be interesting to see how the debate unfolded were a Labour government in power and their leader was recommending remain, whilst cabinet members were recommending leave. I bet the tone would be different.

I'm not sure. The Labour Party is as split as the Tories really, and Corbyn is in exactly the same position as Cameron - someone I think is fundamentally a Eurosceptic but is advocating staying in. The question is why...

Fretwired

ICBM said:

As you know, the possibility of adopting the US model worries me, but not particularly because of workers' rights - more because of the influence of large corporations, the military and foreign policy.

I don't understand that argument. Large US corporations like Ford, General Motors, Microsoft and IBM came to the UK and didn't demand we adopt US style workers rights. It won't happen now. How do I know? Because we are in a competitive world - we will still need to attract immigrants and our own skill workers will still be free to go elsewhere. Adopting US style workers rights will make the UK a less attractive place to work. It's just nonsense. Besides which it would be political suicide.

ICBM

Fretwired said:

ICBM said:

As you know, the possibility of adopting the US model worries me, but not particularly because of workers' rights - more because of the influence of large corporations, the military and foreign policy.

I don't understand that argument. Large US corporations like Ford, General Motors, Microsoft and IBM came to the UK and didn't demand we adopt US style workers rights. It won't happen now. How do I know? Because we are in a competitive world - we will still need to attract immigrants and our own skill workers will still be free to go elsewhere. Adopting US style workers rights will make the UK a less attractive place to work. It's just nonsense. Besides which it would be political suicide.

Er… did you read what I wrote? I said it's not about workers' rights. It's about corporate influence, military and foreign policy.

I know we like to disagree with each other on principle but you even quoted me .

Drew_TNBD

I really want to quote some of the things I've seen, but I legitimately fear that if I do and they see that I've done so, it could fuck up chances for my band to get gigs. And with good reason - an argument I had with someone I knew (over feminism if you can believe that) resulted in my ex-communication no more reviews from their music blog, and generally a shitty attitude from a few people all round. How fucked up is that!

Suffice to say, I'm a bit ashamed of my generation right now.

Fretwired

ICBM said:

Fretwired said:

ICBM said:

As you know, the possibility of adopting the US model worries me, but not particularly because of workers' rights - more because of the influence of large corporations, the military and foreign policy.

I don't understand that argument. Large US corporations like Ford, General Motors, Microsoft and IBM came to the UK and didn't demand we adopt US style workers rights. It won't happen now. How do I know? Because we are in a competitive world - we will still need to attract immigrants and our own skill workers will still be free to go elsewhere. Adopting US style workers rights will make the UK a less attractive place to work. It's just nonsense. Besides which it would be political suicide.

Er… did you read what I wrote? I said it's not about workers' rights. It's about corporate influence, military and foreign policy.

I know we like to disagree with each other on principle but you even quoted me .

But US corporations have been here for years .. what model are you referring to? The EU is all about big business. Germany and France don't have as many SME businesses and we don't have the giant corporations you'll find in German. JLR is tine compared to VW Audi. I never get this big business argument as pretty much everything the EU does business wise is to help the corporations thrive and suppress competition. Bosch have been trying for years to put Dysan out of business by lobbying for changes in regulations that suit them.

ICBM

I mean the undue influence US corporations have at government level, and will have even more if the EU or the UK signs up to what they want. Currently the only opposition is from France, via the EU. I *think* I may have possibly said this before . If you oppose TTIP or equivalent agreements which give corporations the power to challenge government policy, then you need to stay in the EU. A separate UK will just roll over.

It goes further beyond that too - if we become closer to the US economically, which we inevitably will if we leave the EU, then we will have to fall further in line with their foreign policy than we already do. If anything that's one thing that makes me think that a European defence agreement might be a good thing - if it replaces NATO, which has lost its way… or more accurately, has become an active threat to stability.

Chalky

@ICBM - What is the US corporate influence model of which you speak?

Our military and foreign policy alignment with the US has wavered sometimes but has been essentially the same since the first Gulf War. So what are you expecting to change?

ICBM

Chalky said:

@ICBM - What is the US corporate influence model of which you speak?

Read up on what TTIP allows.

Chalky said:

Our military and foreign policy alignment with the US has wavered sometimes but has been essentially the same since the first Gulf War. So what are you expecting to change?

Exactly that. We need to disconnect ourselves from US military policy, not become even further tied to it.

By the way, the *first* Gulf War is the one in which we supported and armed Saddam in a war of aggression against Iran - and is fundamentally the reason he thought he would get away with invading Kuwait - but that's been neatly airbrushed out by renumbering them...

Fretwired

ICBM said:

I mean the undue influence US corporations have at government level, and will have even more if the EU or the UK signs up to what they want. Currently the only opposition is from France, via the EU. I *think* I may have possibly said this before . If you oppose TTIP or equivalent agreements which give corporations the power to challenge government policy, then you need to stay in the EU. A separate UK will just roll over.

It goes further beyond that too - if we become closer to the US economically, which we inevitably will if we leave the EU, then we will have to fall further in line with their foreign policy than we already do. If anything that's one thing that makes me think that a European defence agreement might be a good thing - if it replaces NATO, which has lost its way… or more accurately, has become an active threat to stability.

US corporations can challenge UK government policy now. TTIP means no change for the UK. See the link below:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-tobacco-idUKKBN0TT1HA20151210


The EU will adopt it because the big German and French firms want access to the US, especially the French arms industry which wants to sell kit to the Yanks as the UK winds down it's defence industries.