So, 4 days on, were Remain scaremongering or not?

quarky

How many "remain" voters would actually vote to join the EU?  Surely if they were so would vote "no" to that, and "yes" to remain, they are just more concerned about how we get out?

prh777

Fretwired said:

prh777 said:

down 8billion on government stake in rbs and lloyds already......

It's not real money though ... the government hasn't lost £8 billion ... :-)

The markets have climbed 2.5% this morning .. things will return to normal.

'It's a paper loss' as every IFA will tell you

UK bank stocks are unlikely to return to where we were pre vote.  They were increasingly under pressure from new regulatory burdens (including ringfencing).

I do not share your confidence that  markets will return to normal but we will see where the FTSE is in 6 months time and revisit our opinions.  Credit spreads are massively wider and credit leads equities currently.

DamianP

quarky said:

How many "remain" voters would actually vote to join the EU?  Surely if they were so would vote "no" to that, and "yes" to remain, they are just more concerned about how we get out?

I would.

Bucket

not_the_dj said:

Fretwired said:

 lives on Necker Island in the Caribbean to avoid paying tax.

He probably enjoys the weather, and the views as well.

Nooooo, we can't have anyone thinking Richard Branson is motivated by anything other than a desire not to pay tax!

Come on. If I could live in a staggeringly beautiful palace on a Caribbean island paradise, I fucking would too.

Sporky

quarky said:

How many "remain" voters would actually vote to join the EU? 

What's the situation in the EU and the UK under that scenario? It wouldn't be the same as it is now.

Mkjackary

I know quite a few people who voted remain that would rather leave now.

They see it as ripping off a plaster, it is done now, going back would just cause more damage and uncertainty.

Not me I voted leave, but a decent amount of people I know who voted remain would have prefered remain, but now it is done and finished, wouldn't vote to undo this result...

Plus, can you imagine all the extra uncertainty that would be caused by another few months of campaigning, followed by polls going one way and the other, followed by a remain vote by 0.5%. At which point leave turn around and say "alright fair enough, best of three?". 

)

Sporky

I'm happy to say right now that if there is another referendum (and I'm not in favour) then unless it's more than 70-30 remain I'd definitely support best of three. And a gentle public flogging for anyone involved in publicly campaigning either way. Y'know, with some foam pipe lagging or something like that, no blood spilled, no permanent damage, but something that'll sting in the morning.

thomasross20

p90fool said:

thomasross20;1129827" said:

What about the folk who voted remain who are relieved with the decision? We simply don't know. What if we vote again and the result is still leave? 

We didn't "vote leave", we just had a totally inconclusive opinion poll, the result of which was an almost exact split down the middle.

You can't base the future of half a continent on the concept of sneaking a late winner, it's not a bloody football match. It's simple, NOBODY WON.

Devil's advocate: 

If it were 52:48 for remain, do you think we'd be saying the same things? 

siremoon

The FTSE100 has lost 50% of its value twice since 2000.  In 2009 it fell below 3900, it wasn't until 2013 that it recovered to a level equal to last night's "omg we're all doomed" close.  The markets are up today.

It may well turn into a long term bear market but you can't tell after two and a half trading days.  Yesterday's fall produced some very good value on some stocks which investors are not going to ignore.  They are in it to make money not prove a point.

skankdelvar

Brexit may have been a catalyst for these market adjustments but it wasn't the root cause.

World markets have been primed for a fall for some years now. Safe-haven gold was steadily climbing back up over the last year, pundits have been fretting about QE causing a US stock bubble and the Fed has been maintaining an opaque position in an attempt to stabilise the dollar. 

Likewise, sterling has been drifting downwards for the last few years on perceptions that it's overvalued; it would probably have hit $1.30 at some point in the next 12 months and few outside the foreign exchange markets would have noticed.

siremoon

Agreed a correction was overdue.  The markets were at historically high levels 15 months ago and have fallen about 15% since

Troy

mellowsun said:

Tbh the only people I know who are still positive about voting leave are retired or long-term unemployed.

Are you for real? Talk about stereotyping! I voted leave and I feel positive and i'm working full time and I'm not retirement age. 

lloyd

thomasross20 said:

p90fool said:

thomasross20;1129827" said:

What about the folk who voted remain who are relieved with the decision? We simply don't know. What if we vote again and the result is still leave? 

We didn't "vote leave", we just had a totally inconclusive opinion poll, the result of which was an almost exact split down the middle.

You can't base the future of half a continent on the concept of sneaking a late winner, it's not a bloody football match. It's simple, NOBODY WON.

Devil's advocate: 

If it were 52:48 for remain, do you think we'd be saying the same things? 

The leave campaign would be in exactly the same boat as they were 2 weeks ago so yes, they'd keep going.

capo4th

It's quite staggering that lots of people have voted to make themselves less well off.

paulmapp8306

If people actually trust what MPs tell them - rather than digging in and doing their own research - they deserve to be easily mis-led.

Yes I voted Leave

Yes I knew the initial economic likely hood.

I knew the 350 mil was a real figure, but not net.

I knew immigration would stop

I did some independent research

I weighed up the down side, against the upside - factored in my own thoughts about med-long term future - then made a choice.  In truth I was 50/50 after that process.  The tipping point was (as Ive said before) the total unwillingness of the EU to consider reform when asked, knowing the British people were getting a referendum and wernt happy.  Ultimately that attitude is why I voted out. 

Snap

Paul, immigration won't stop, that's just it.

And if we actually do leave, and join a single market, or some other EU trade agreement, its highly likely that immigration will be absolutely no different than today.

The whole immigration angle is a massive ruse.

paulmapp8306

Just been looking.

FTSE 250 up 3.86% at today present

FTSE 100 up 2.86% today

£-$ up 1.2% on same time yesterday

£-Euro 1% up on same time yesterday.

Fickle are the money men.

Sporky

capo4th said:

It's quite staggering that lots of people have voted to make themselves less well off.

Frightfully altruistic of them.

octatonic

paulmapp8306 said:

Just been looking.

FTSE 250 up 3.86% at today present

FTSE 100 up 2.86% today

£-$ up 1.2% on same time yesterday

£-Euro 1% up on same time yesterday.

Fickle are the money men.

You need to understand context.

This is a brief rallying- everyone thinks it will continue to drop over the medium term.

You have to look at trends over a longer period.

This isn't a case of being fickle, it is typical in a crash for it to go down, then up a bit, then down more, then up a bit, but the overall trend will be down.

Come back in a week and see who is right here.

capo4th

paulmapp8306 said:

If people actually trust what MPs tell them - rather than digging in and doing their own research - they deserve to be easily mis-led.

Yes I voted Leave

Yes I knew the initial economic likely hood.

I knew the 350 mil was a real figure, but not net.

I knew immigration would stop

I did some independent research

I weighed up the down side, against the upside - factored in my own thoughts about med-long term future - then made a choice.  In truth I was 50/50 after that process.  The tipping point was (as Ive said before) the total unwillingness of the EU to consider reform when asked, knowing the British people were getting a referendum and wernt happy.  Ultimately that attitude is why I voted out. 

Please tell us when and how immigration will stop ?

And who's gonna stop it ? 

Most people voted leave on this promise and it was never gonna happen ever ! 

The leave campaign got more votes on 6 sound bites that they could never deliver and 52% of voters believed those sound bites.

We are a small planet connected by thousands of aeroplanes boats trains and automobiles people move around get used to it. 

We will be all happy in the EU by Christmas trust me.