So, 4 days on, were Remain scaremongering or not?

shuikit

thomasross20 said:

p90fool said:

thomasross20;1129827" said:

What about the folk who voted remain who are relieved with the decision? We simply don't know. What if we vote again and the result is still leave? 

We didn't "vote leave", we just had a totally inconclusive opinion poll, the result of which was an almost exact split down the middle.

You can't base the future of half a continent on the concept of sneaking a late winner, it's not a bloody football match. It's simple, NOBODY WON.

Devil's advocate: 

If it were 52:48 for remain, do you think we'd be saying the same things? 

Someone speaking from the remain camp (I think it may even have been Cameron) said that if the vote was close then it would still show that there is something that needs addressing, so in a way, yes these types of conversation would still be taking place and probably will/would be while the likes of ukip exist.  The main difference is that we wouldn't have this dip in the economy, the two main political parties wouldn't be in disarray, reported hate crimes wouldn't be up 50 odd% and Farage wouldn't have that grin on his face.

Evilmags

Forced selling by EU government controlled institutions and central banks, markets have been in a bubble for a while and a lot of people had bet heavily on remain so had to unwind positions. 

octatonic

That isn't that an accurate cartoon, because Britain leaving the EU is sabotaging in itself.

It is like setting someone's car on fire and then knocking on their door and saying 'yeah, your car is on fire'.

Er... thanks, dickhead.

paulmapp8306

octatonic said:

paulmapp8306 said:

Just been looking.

FTSE 250 up 3.86% at today present

FTSE 100 up 2.86% today

£-$ up 1.2% on same time yesterday

£-Euro 1% up on same time yesterday.

Fickle are the money men.

You need to understand context.

This is a brief rallying- everyone thinks it will continue to drop over the medium term.

You have to look at trends over a longer period.

This isn't a case of being fickle, it is typical in a crash for it to go down, then up a bit, then down more, then up a bit, but the overall trend will be down.

Come back in a week and see who is right here.

Ive no doubt.

Looking further back - the markets are a lot stronger even now than they were back in 2012/2013 ish.  Ultimately we have been in a worse place a few years ago, and I believe will be in  a better place in a few years time.

paulmapp8306

capo4th said:

paulmapp8306 said:

If people actually trust what MPs tell them - rather than digging in and doing their own research - they deserve to be easily mis-led.

Yes I voted Leave

Yes I knew the initial economic likely hood.

I knew the 350 mil was a real figure, but not net.

I knew immigration would stop

I did some independent research

I weighed up the down side, against the upside - factored in my own thoughts about med-long term future - then made a choice.  In truth I was 50/50 after that process.  The tipping point was (as Ive said before) the total unwillingness of the EU to consider reform when asked, knowing the British people were getting a referendum and wernt happy.  Ultimately that attitude is why I voted out. 

Please tell us when and how immigration will stop ?

And who's gonna stop it ? 

Most people voted leave on this promise and it was never gonna happen ever ! 

The leave campaign got more votes on 6 sound bites that they could never deliver and 52% of voters believed those sound bites.

We are a small planet connected by thousands of aeroplanes boats trains and automobiles people move around get used to it. 

We will be all happy in the EU by Christmas trust me.

lol.  Meant to say wouldnt stop.  Immigration will never stop - but we can control it.  Thats what we need.

I also wouldnt be that unhappy to be "happy in the EU by Christmas" as long as this kicks the arogant gits up the bum, and they start to reform in areas a lot of people arnt happy.

Sporky

octatonic said:

That isn't that an accurate cartoon, because Britain leaving the EU is sabotaging in itself.

It is like setting someone's car on fire and then knocking on their door and saying 'yeah, your car is on fire'.

Er... thanks, dickhead.

If they didn't have parachutes it'd be more accurate.

octatonic

It is possible, but you're ignoring how hard it is going to be for people over the next 2 years- and the one's that hurt the most will be working class and poorer folk.

paulmapp8306

Me you mean.

This is true - but it was mostly the working class that voted out so ?????

This was one fact I laughed about when Corbyn said you cant let the poor/working class take the brunt of something they didnt cause ---- well in fact, in this case, they did (doesnt make it right - just saying).

mellowsun

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/28/siemens-freezes-new-uk-wind-power-investment-following-brexit-vote#comment-77612418

Some of the comments are interesting

Its precisely the same approach my firm have taken, no investments in the UK until this is all sorted out because its not clear what any return would be or what conditions are. We have taken the view that a couple of years at least with possible negative financial times in between mean we won't need investment for at least that long and have cut our investment group in the UK - 3 jobs gone just like that. 

Such decisions are being replicated daily in board meetings , these will filter down and out - then the bleating will really start.

the knock on effects of industrial supply chains. Anything related to wind turbine erection will take a hit. Crane companies, factories producing mundane things like bolts, nuts, paint, forgings, everything. Just because Siemens, a German company, doesn't want to build more turbines here, doesn't mean that all those bits and pieces are coming from Germany.

siremoon

There's going to be loads of this.  Company x who were going to scrap a project anyway will now blame it on Brexit even if it had nothing to do with it.  It's going to become a convenient scapegoat for absolutely everything, even stuff that was going to happen anyway.

Heartfeltdawn

Fretwired said:

World War 3 hasn't started and Osborne has decided not to impose his drastic budget so I say yes. There was always going to be some volatility in the markets.

The real shock of this referendum would have been if you'd said no. 

WezV

siremoon said:

There's going to be loads of this.  Company x who were going to scrap a project anyway will now blame it on Brexit even if it had nothing to do with it.  It's going to become a convenient scapegoat for absolutely everything, even stuff that was going to happen anyway.

There's already a lot of this.  Real immediate effects of Brexit written off as fiction

skankdelvar

In 2008 sterling went from $2.10 to $1.37. Apart from those who holidayed in Florida we hardly noticed

In 2010 we faced the uncertainty of a hung parliament. Sterling dropped from $1.55 to $1.42. A coalition deal was struck and a month later it was back at $1.55. By the end of the year it went to $1.67.

It's all about confidence. Even though absolutely nothing has changed in terms of trade and treaties since last week the markets have panicked. That's basically people just like us sitting at desks in banks going 'Oo-er! What happens next? Dearie me!'

But while some traders have frightened themselves into a sell-off others are quietly picking up shares and currency at bargain prices. Some buyers are raving about 'the mother of all foreign exchange opportunities'; others retort that one should not catch a falling knife. Eventually it settles down into a conventional understanding of the position and business continues.

It hasn't helped that neither Remain nor Leave could be bothered to have a post-vote plan nor - even - to stay at their desks over the weekend. Outside the UK the problem is compounded by Labour's convulsions; these reinforce the perception that not only is there a temporary absence of government but also that there is no alternative government in waiting. This itself suggests that overseas traders and foreign governments alike have until now been completely unaware of the gaping divisions in HM's dysfunctional Opposition.

In the end, it's down to us - again. We can run round like headless chickens and further depress the public mood. We can ask to re-run the referendum and prolong the uncertainty at what financial cost we cannot imagine. Or we can keep our nerve, press hard for an early conclusion of the Tory leadership election then demand clarity of intent. What we do not need is a general election.

In the end, we'd probably be best served if the EU somehow forced an Article 50, and the various parties were driven to begin negotiations. This leisurely approach is not paying off.

RaymondLin

Here are my 2 cents

1. We need to trade with the EU, even if we leave, we can't not trade, because that would be econmical suicide.
2. In order to trade with the EU, we need to get on board with lots of regulations and also pay a fee. Think of it like a private member's club. You need to abide by the club's rules and pay an entry fee or you can stay outside in the rain.
3. The rule on free movement of workers is a cornerstone of the EU. If you want to trade, you have to sign up with that. It is almost like if you want to come inside, you have to take off your shoes.

For example, Norway is not in the EU but can trade, in return they pay a fee, and actually works out MORE than what we pay per capita. Makes sense as they are not an offical member, so pay more than an official member. They also have to sign up to Free movement of workers. Except Norway can afford this increase because they have a lot more oil reserve than us.

We have a pretty unique and sweet deal before, we even have our own currency so during the 2008/2009 recession we wasn't hit as hard as others. We also had a seat on the table help shape EU laws.

Norway on the other hand do not, they have to abide by any law that EU passes and implement them, no questions asks.

So right now, the best we can hope for is going on the similar deal that Norway has.

1. Sign up to 75% of EU regulation
2. Have free movement of workers
3. Pay more memebers' fee than we did before
4. No influence of EU legislations. Have to implement them anyway

Basically we are pretty much begging to get back to a worse deal than we had last week, with billions knocked out of or stock market and companies value, pensions. Our country's credit rating has taken a massive knock with increase cost of borrowing rising, the political landscape is going to crap, Boris has gone into hiding since and the world thinks we are insane !!! (when everyone else wants to join the EU, we want to leave it). Honestly, what we are trying to do is get back to the position in terms of trade that we were as of last week….and sign up to 75% of the legislation we were on and we don't really have that £350 million (not that we had that much anyway) to spend on anything because not only that has been wiped off due to the stock market and the credit rating drop. We have to pay MORE than before per capita now to trade.

Its like we've shot ourselves in the left foot, and then take an axe to the right kneecap.

But…we can say we have our soverienty back…..woot hoo !!!! I wonder if my bank manager take that as a mortgage payment if I lose my job.

hywelg

We will keep being asked until we provide the result the politicians want. You wait and see.

This will result in more disillusionment with the political system.

I do not want 330k immigration every year for the next 20years or even 5 years, so if we do leave those in charge will have to see to it that it does not happen or UKIP will just get bigger and bigger.

mellowsun

RaymondLin said:

Here are my 2 cents

1. We need to trade with the EU, even if we leave, we can't not trade, because that would be econmical suicide.
2. In order to trade with the EU, we need to get on board with lots of regulations and also pay a fee. Think of it like a private member's club. You need to abide by the club's rules and pay an entry fee or you can stay outside in the rain.
3. The rule on free movement of workers is a cornerstone of the EU. If you want to trade, you have to sign up with that. It is almost like if you want to come inside, you have to take off your shoes.

For example, Norway is not in the EU but can trade, in return they pay a fee, and actually works out MORE than what we pay per capita. Makes sense as they are not an offical member, so pay more than an official member. They also have to sign up to Free movement of workers. Except Norway can afford this increase because they have a lot more oil reserve than us.

We have a pretty unique and sweet deal before, we even have our own currency so during the 2008/2009 recession we wasn't hit as hard as others. We also had a seat on the table help shape EU laws.

Norway on the other hand do not, they have to abide by any law that EU passes and implement them, no questions asks.

So right now, the best we can hope for is going on the similar deal that Norway has.

1. Sign up to 75% of EU regulation
2. Have free movement of workers
3. Pay more memebers' fee than we did before
4. No influence of EU legislations. Have to implement them anyway

Basically we are pretty much begging to get back to a worse deal than we had last week, with billions knocked out of or stock market and companies value, pensions. Our country's credit rating has taken a massive knock with increase cost of borrowing rising, the political landscape is going to crap, Boris has gone into hiding since and the world thinks we are insane !!! (when everyone else wants to join the EU, we want to leave it). Honestly, what we are trying to do is get back to the position in terms of trade that we were as of last week….and sign up to 75% of the legislation we were on and we don't really have that £350 million (not that we had that much anyway) to spend on anything because not only that has been wiped off due to the stock market and the credit rating drop. We have to pay MORE than before per capita now to trade.

Its like we've shot ourselves in the left foot, and then take an axe to the right kneecap.

But…we can say we have our soverienty back…..woot hoo !!!! I wonder if my bank manager take that as a mortgage payment if I lose my job.

^^^ This x 1000. Wis

ICBM

Fatfingers

hywelg said:

I do not want 330k immigration every year for the next 20years or even 5 years

Do you mind if I ask why? 

RaymondLin

Btw does anyone actually wake up in the morning and say "damn those EU legislation, I wish my pillow cases were this way instead!"

I never feel infringed by EU regs and in fact I like them, like the 14 days return policy, that's a EU reg, we only had 7 days before. Or flights within Europe, if your flights gets into problems, the airline have to take care of you.

Never in my life have I ever thought EU legislation got in the way of my daily living.

Sporky

RaymondLin said:

Never in my life have I ever thought EU legislation got in the way of my daily living.

But they sure do get in the way of my sovereignty. Whatever that is.